经济学人丨体育博彩推广丨2017.09.30丨总第1008期

摘要: 导读体育博彩首先由主要的博彩公司开出特定的相关赔率包括比分(得分),胜负平关联,甚至于特定时间内的比分。因为

导读

体育博彩首先由主要的博彩公司开出特定的相关赔率包括比分(得分),胜负平关联,甚至于特定时间内的比分。因为足球是世界上最受到公众瞩目的体育赛事之一,而且多数国家联赛;包括欧洲冠军联赛在一年内不间断式的进行,参与的球队数量以及影响力为其他运动所不及,所以称为体育博彩行业中最受到关注以及投入大量资金的运动。体育博彩是指针对尚未有结果的体育比赛进行猜测结果,并投注金钱赌输赢的合法或非法的赌博行为。

Hedge funds try to promote sports betting as an asset class

对冲基金试图将体育博彩推广为一种资产类别

Is it really recession-proof?

这真的能抵抗经济衰退吗?

Aug 17th 2017

WHEN he was 12, Warwick Bartlett bought “100 Famous Greyhound Systems”, a guide for betting on dog races. After spending a year tracking every stratagem and picking the best two, he went to the races to take his first punts. He lost. Mr Bartlett, now the boss of GBGC, a betting consultancy, says it taught him a good lesson: “A system can win for a period of time. And then it’s had its day.”

沃里特·巴特利特他12岁时买了“100个最著名的灰狗系统”――一个下注狗比赛的指南。他花费了一年时间研究每个策略,并挑选出了最好的两个,随后他到现场下了他的第一个赌注。从此,一发不可收拾。现在巴特利特先生是一家博彩咨询公司GBGC的老板,他说,这件事情他得了很好一个教训:“某个系统可以在一段时间内赢,但总有期限。”

  • Punt  v.下赌注


Two trading companies are trying to prove him wrong. Melbourne-based Priomha Capital, which claims to be the “world’s premier sports hedge fund”, wagers on European football, cricket and golf. Founded in 2010, the firm manages about $20m. Stratagem, a rival based in Britain that styles itself as a technology business, wants to raise $25m from rich individuals.

两家贸易公司试图证明他所说的是错误的。总部位于墨尔本的Priomha Capital,号称“世界顶级的体育对冲基金”,在欧洲的足球,板球和高尔夫上下注。该公司于2010年成立,管理着大约2000万美元。其竞争对手Stratagem是一家总部位于英国的公司,公司定位为技术业务公司,想依靠富人将资金提高至2500万美元。

  • Wager  n.赌注

Both argue that techniques imported from the investment world can help turn sports betting into an alternative asset class. By crunching data, they analyse the pricing of odds to identify profitable trades, just as an investment firm would do to pick stocks.

双方都认为从投资界引进技术可以帮助体育博彩事业发展成另一种投资类别。通过数据分析,他们分析出了赔率定价来确定贸易是否有利可图,就像投资公司挑选股票一样。

  • Crunching  处理


It sounds appealing. Brendan Poots, Priomha’s founder, points out that political and economic shocks have little bearing on sports events, making bets on them the “ultimate uncorrelated asset class”. Sports results should also be recession-proof. And spread-betting—where punters can buy or sell a given outcome—allows punters to hedge their risks, which Priomha does for more than 95% of its trades.

这听起来很吸引人。Priomha的创始人布伦丹·珀(Brendan Poots)指出,政治和经济的冲击对体育赛事几乎没有影响,因此对他们的押注是“终极不相关的资产类别”。体育赛事的最终结果也应该能抗衰退的。在下注的过程中,下注者可以买或卖一个给定的结果,下注者可以凭此降低他们的风险,这是Priomha对其95%以上的交易所采取的办法。

  • recession-proof.:抗衰退

  • Punters:赌客

But sceptics abound. Galileo, a sports hedge fund launched in 2010, folded in 2012 after losing $2.5m. Critics contend that sports trading markets are far less liquid than financial ones. Adam Kucharski, a London-based mathematician, says that in only a few markets are gamblers safe from the risk of placing big bets that will move the odds against themselves.

但是怀疑者众多。伽利略(Galileo)是一家在2010年建立的体育对冲基金,在2012年损失了250万美元后,随后破产。批评家认为体育贸易市场的流动性远小于金融市场。一位伦敦的数学家亚当·库哈尔斯基表示,仅仅在少数市场中,下注者在下风险大赌注能幸免于难,常常胜算少,输的多。


A more fundamental problem is that bookmakers are also spending lavishly to develop predictive models; many have dedicated units of quantitative traders. The hedge funds’ confidence that they can consistently beat the house seems misplaced.(读者试译)

(期待您的翻译,明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~)


The funds argue, however, that bookmakers can be wrong: many lost money on English football when Leicester won the Premier League in 2016, against initial odds of 5000-to-1. They also point out that the large number of casual betters punting on big events can skew the odds. In those cases, the bookmaker’s interest may not be to forecast the result, but to minimise its risk by attracting bets on a low-probability outcome.And bookmakers sometimes disagree, which they do more since the rise of “in-play” betting (on, say, single tennis points or a range of match statistics). This option also enables a fund manager to adjust his initial exposure over time. “You can get it wrong without blowing up the house,” says Mr Poots.

然而,对冲基金辩称说,博彩公司可能是错误的,2016年,莱斯特赢得了英超联赛时,很多人在英格兰足球上输了钱,赔率为5000:1。他们同样指出因大量随意的有利条件干涉,一个大事件中会使赔率倾斜。在这种情况下,博彩公司的赢利未必能预测出来,但他们通过吸引低盈利率的赌资来将风险最小化。但博彩公司有时也不同意这种观点,他们在“赌球”下注后做得更多(比如说,单点网球或者一系列的比赛数据)这种状况可以让基金经理随着时间的推移来不断调整最初的风险敞口。珀说“你可以在不炸毁房子的情况下出错”。

  • skew:vt. 使歪斜


Priomha’s longest-running fund posted a 10.1% return—before fees—in its latest financial year, a period during which an index of global hedge funds compiled by Hedge Fund Research fell by 5.7%. As it hones its algorithms, Priomha hopes for returns of 17% in the medium term—ie, close to the targets aimed for by private-equity investors. Even an insider, however, concedes it is “probably too early” to persuade institutional investors, a risk-averse bunch, to go to the races, let alone the dogs. 

在最近的金融年度中,Priomha公布了最长时间基金的回报率为10.1%,不包含费用。在这段时间里,对冲基金研究机构编制的全球对冲基金指数下降了5.7%。随着不断改进算法,Priomha希望在中期投资率达到17%,比如说,接近于私募股权投资者的目标。然而,就连内部人士也承认,要说服一群厌恶风险的机构投资者去现场了解“可能还为时过早”,更不用说下注了。

  • hones:v. 用磨刀石磨(hone的第三人称单数)

  • algorithm:算法

注意:

  1. 音频和英文原文来自《经济学人》

  2. 原文请订阅《经济学人》官方正版

  3. 注:以上所有图片均来源于网络

审核 丨sensitive  

翻译 丨 子衿&葉子    

图文编辑 丨crown

责任编辑 丨 毛毛




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